Huck wins Kansas
Mike Huckabee has won the Kansas Caucus and at least 24 delegates there. He received 60% of the vote, which means that Romney people in the precincts swung in his direction. Chip Saltsman is saying that Huckabee won every Kansas delegate but two.
Very interesting indeed....More to come tonight!
Labels: Presidential Election
The tantrum
Dinesh D'Souza says what I think are some very truthful words about those throwing a tantrum over the probable nomination of John McCain:
Now that John McCain seems assured of being the Republican nominee for president, will I join Ann Coulter in campaigning for Hillary Clinton? Only if I've completely lost my marbles, as Coulter seems to have in this case.
Hillary Clinton wants to raise taxes. She wants the government to take over one-sixth of the economy in the form of the health care sector. She wants to retreat in Iraq. She wants abortion on demand, however "safe" and "rare.' She wants more social liberals of the Ruth Bader Ginsburg stripe on the Supreme Court. She loathes conservatives who represent to her a "vast right-wing conspiracy."
I am no more thrilled about McCain's nomination than Coulter or Rush Limbaugh happen to be. I fully understand how it feels to work and vote for the conservative movement for years and then be presented with John McCain. We should be reminded, however, that when we say that at least McCain is not Hillary Clinton, there are still great differences between the two.
As D'Souza pointed out, Rudy Giuliani got far better treatment from Rush Limbaugh, and unlike McCain, Rudy is a dyed-in-the-wool social (and sometimes fiscal) liberal. If Rush and Ann had been on top of Rudy as fast as they were all over John McCain when he became a real threat, Giuliani would have been out before Iowa.
Labels: Presidential Election
The fat lady has not sung
Nearly everyone who is following the presidential campaign knows the Democratic race isn't over, but the press is doing all they can to convince people the Republican nomination is sewn up:
Sen. John McCain awoke Wednesday with a commanding lead in the race for Republican delegates while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney plans to meet with aides after a disappointing Super Tuesday showing.
In spite of John McCain's very strong lead, however, the nominating contests are not over:
While everyone is proclaiming McCain the presumptive nominee after Romney’s exit, the GOP race still isn’t over. And do remember that McCain has never been a good front-runner -- he has always seemed to trip up when in that position. Huckabee is still in the race, and his last stand is Virginia. He may not say it, but it's pretty obvious when one looks at the potential Republican electorate. Should many indies and moderate Republicans decide their vote is better spent in the Dem primary, then Huckabee's passionate evangelical supporters could be enough to keep things close.
As often as I fault the press for the way that they cover our electoral process (that was one of the prime reasons that this blog was started), I do understand that the media is largely playing delegate math, and the reality is that Mike Huckabee will need to do better than expected-and probably win 75% of all remaining primaries and caucuses-to actually win the nomination. However, the process isn't over until the last primary, or the last remaining trailing candidate drops out of the race-and neither of those things have happened so far today.
If the press engages in a coronation of McCain as the GOP nominee before the process is complete (which it appears they are doing) the news media stands to be the party that could be primarily responsible for depressing voter turnout in remaining contests, including Louisiana on Saturday and in the Chesapeake Bay next Tuesday. As long as the nomination is not officially clinched, the press ought to behave as though the race is not over so as to encourage voter participation-unless the mainstream press doesn't want people voting in Republican primaries.
Labels: News Media, Presidential Election
Super Tuesday Roundtable
Listen to the Super Tuesday RoundtableA Roundtable with, John McJunkin Fabian Story, and David Oatney on Super Tuesday evening. Led by Adam Graham.Labels: Presidential Election, Radio show
Libel, anyone?
There are liberal elements to the mainstream press that agitate conservatives. The New York Times is a conservative byword for evil in many cases. Newspapers with a liberal Democratic editorial line are always going to be a part of our national discussion because partisan newspapers have been a part of our political heritage since the founding of the republic. Papers like the Times and the Boston Globe are entitled to their editorial line.There is another kind of publication with editorial bias, and it isn't a real newspaper. This kind of publication delights in the libel of political opponents. The Memphis Flyer is such a piece of printed toilet paper, and they attempted to ruin the career of a conservative Knoxville State Representative with a doctored photo. A couple of years ago, Tennessee State Representative Stacey Campfield shadowed Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen at the annual barbecue hosted by Congressman Jimmy Duncan and held up this bumper sticker:
This was the picture the Flyer published:
Because the folks at the Flyer don't like Stacey's political views, they chose to publish a doctored picture that might ruin his political career. Rather than conduct themselves honorably, the liberal editors of the Flyer chose to smear a political figure they didn't like. Over the last couple of days, I joined several of Stacey's friends in advising him to do something that I would not be likely to advise someone to do: Sue the Flyer and own the paper. I don't think people ought to delight in lawsuits, but the courts do exist for a reason.Apparently The Memphis Flyer got the message-they apologized for the offending photograph-though it was a very poor apology.
Labels: Local politics, Tennessee politics
MITT'S OUT-we have a two man race
Mitt Romney is set to announce that he will suspend his campaign. He is set to make this announcement before the Conservative Political Action Conference in just a bit.
Where now will Romney's delegates and supporters go? It appears that McCain will be the nominee, but from a raw political perspective, it behooves Mike Huckabee to stay in the race as long as possible.
NOTE (12:54 PM): He is making it official as I write this. It is the best speech I've ever heard him give...it is a real doozy.
Labels: Conservatism, Presidential Election, Republican Party
Hillary's cash crunch
Hillary Clinton's campaign is in a cash crunch that her campaign officials are publicly denying (which would be the script, of course). We already know that she loaned her own campaign $5 million yesterday because she was running short on money, but today we hear that some of her people are going without pay:
Clinton faced a serious cash crunch going into Tuesday's multi-state vote due to overspending in Iowa, a source within the campaign told NBC News. Staffers blamed campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, who was among those working for free, the source said.
Privately, her strategists have also largely written off her chances of winning the so-called Potomac primary Feb. 9, given the large black populations in Virginia, Maryland and D.C. They are also playing down her chances in the following week's major primaries _ Hawaii, where Obama grew up, and Wisconsin, which has virtually sealed the nomination for other Democrats in years past.
I know that the Clinton people are concentrating on Ohio and Texas, both of which vote March 4th. Hillary faces a momentum problem, however. Barack Obama continues to consistently out-raise her, and efforts by the Clinton camp to somehow paint Obama as the establishment candidate not only sound phony, they are-and Hillary knows it. If Obama wins in Louisiana Saturday as projected, and wins the caucuses in Nebraska and Washington that same day, a likely Hillary victory in Maine won't be enough to keep Obama from winning Maryland, Virginia, and D.C. By the time we get around to March 4th, it may be very possible for Obama to have amassed a slew of delegates and even more money-and that would suddenly make him viable in Ohio.
I'm obviously not a Democrat, but I find the race on the Democratic side fascinating and Hillary's desperation to be great comedy. The long race is also good for the political process in general.
Labels: Presidential Election
Ash Wednesday
On this day of repentance which begins the season of penance, it turns out to be quite appropriate that Ash Wednesday falls after a primary in which a lot of people are thinking about right and wrong, and so many are concerned with the state of the republic.
In Knox County today ought to be a day of beating of the breast for those public officials who were brought down to size by the people-sometimes we all need to be humbled. For Scott Moore, it was the realization that he has some things to make right with the people, and he couldn't do that from the position he was in.
Lent is a time for all of us (yes, dear detractors, liberals, etc., even me) to sit at the school of humility. The election merely brings to light, both on a local and a national level, that all of the things of this world are truly fleeting.
Labels: Faith, Holy Mother Church, Local politics
I'll see your 5, and raise you 30
Hillary publicly announced that she loaned herself $5,000,000 today in order to remain competative. I generally share the hypothesis of some that if she can hang on through March 4th, she has an excellent shot at the nomination on the Democratic side.
The problem is going to be what happens between now and then, especially with Barack Obama on pace to raise $30 million this month.
Labels: Presidential Election
An examination of political conscience
One of John McCain's key advisors, Charlie Black, told reporters earlier today that he believes McCain has the Republican nomination in the bag:
Speaking with reporters today, McCain adviser Charlie Black said, "To date, we have 775 delegates, Romney has 284, Huckabee has 205. It takes 1,191 to clinch the nomination. There are 963 left to be chosen, so Romney or Huckabee would have to have all of them -- all of them -- to get to 1,191. Now you can't do that because a majority of those 963 are chosen in proportional primaries, which means you'd have to get 100% if the vote to get them all.
I believe that it is in the best interest of the Republican Party in a long-term sense for the simple reason that the GOP needs to have a serious internal debate about its future. Whether they voted for Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, or someone else yesterday, a majority of Republicans simply do not trust McCain and do not like the direction the party is going. This isn't merely a question of John McCain needing to win people over, the national Republican Party needs to use the coming months to re-examine its message and what the party intends to stand for in the 21st Century.Labels: Presidential Election
Calling it too soon
The New York Times appears ready to call the Republican nomination for John McCain:
But after months of disarray, Republicans seemed closer to coalescing around Senator John McCain of Arizona. As Mr. McCain logged victories in populous states, including California, and added more delegates to his count, he moved nearer his goal of wrapping up his competition with Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. A third Republican candidate, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, underlined Mr. Romney’s weakness by posting a series of victories, in a performance that highlighted the discomfort social conservatives have with the field.
It can't be denied at this point that McCain is the obvious frontrunner, but a look at the vote totals in some States show us that the GOP is far from united around him. If he does become the nominee, it is well-established at this point that he does not have the trust of conservatives. He will have to rely on the reality that the Democrats continue to be divided for perhaps weeks to come. I've talked to several political operatives on both sides who all seem to believe that Hillary will still emerge as the nominee, but the longer the Democrats fight over the nomination, the more likely Republicans are to benefit.
Conversely, Democrats can expect to make use of the reality that conservatives have not rallied around John McCain and may never do so. This could be a recipe for an election that is just as close as the previous two have been, though if Obama were to pull off the Democratic nomination I would be prepared to give him the edge.
In carrying Tennessee, Mike Huckabee did extremely well in rural parts of the State, though John McCain carried several East Tennessee counties, including Hawkins, Hamblen, Sevier, Knox, and my home county of Jefferson by about four percentage points. Huckabee's strength was in Middle and West Tennessee, but he received enough East Tennessee votes that it helped propel him to victory Statewide in spite of losing most of the heavily-Republican counties in East Tennessee (though he did win Johnson and Sullivan counties).
Labels: Presidential Election
Super Tuesday=Ash Wednesday exhaustion
Having been up since 4:45 yesterday morning (it is now nearly 1:30 AM in the east) covering and monitoring Super Tuesday, I am exhausted. I just finished a 2 hour podcast on the results, and I will post it and plenty of other thoughts later today....Labels: Miscellany, Presidential Election, Tennessee politics
The vote from here
It hasn't been terribly long since I returned from my polling place at White Pine School. While there, I noticed that turnout was very light-at least it wasn't what I expected. Jefferson County rules require that a voter fill out a short ballot application when you arrive. After I did that and signed the book I was escorted to a voting machine programmed with a Republican Primary ballot. I noticed that some of today's poll workers were neighbors-not uncommon in a small town like this one, but a pleasant side-effect to be mobbed with hellos.
I initially thought that what I witnessed was an indication of low voter turnout in our county. I've since been told that precincts all over the
First District are reporting higher than normal turnout. At least one person who voted later than I did told me there was quite a line. It appears that most folks voted early in the morning or are voting this afternoon after work.
Nashville is
reporting steady turnout.
Labels: Presidential Election
Mitt Whiner Romney loses West Virginia to Huckabee
Mike Huckabee
won the vote at the West Virginia Republican Convention this afternoon, a has clinched all of that State's GOP delegates. The reaction of the Romney campaign is for Romney's people to
whine like children:
"Unfortunately, this is what Senator McCain's inside Washington ways look like: he cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best stop Governor Romney's campaign of conservative change.
"Governor Romney had enough respect for the Republican voters of West Virginia to make an appeal to them about the future of the party based on issues. This is why he led on today's first ballot. Sadly, Senator McCain cut a Washington backroom deal in a way that once again underscores his legacy of working against Republicans who are interested in championing conservative policies and rebuilding the party."
I have just lost a ton of respect for Mitt Romney, and I was almost willing to give the man the benefit of the doubt as the conservative standard-bearer this year. Romney's reaction to losing in West Virginia was not to congratulate Huckabee (like a real man would do), but to cry about some supposed backroom deal that neither he nor his supporters can actually prove took place.
Note to our country's new whiner-in-chief: This was a convention in West Virginia. Striking deals is a part of the process in a real party convention, and none of it was done in secret. You lost to Mike Huckabee, and this may be a signal that Huckabee could be in second place in the delegate count at the end of the night. One thing I have learned about politics over the years is that you take your victories in grace and your loses like a man or woman.
Labels: Presidential Election
She sounds desperate
Hillary called the house with her voice in a can this morning right after I returned from breakfast and coffee. Even in a robo-call the woman sounds terribly desperate, as if she really wants to say
"pleeease vote for me."
It it didn't provide such comic relief, I might have lost my morning meal. Perhaps the Democrats will deliver some very surprising results tonight.
Labels: Presidential Election
The primary of our discontent
We've heard a lot of talk this election cycle about how
Democrats are excited but
Republicans are feeling downcast and unhappy about their choices during the primaries. On days like today, I try to get the pulse of people here in
White Pine about how they are feeling about their voting options, and for them it didn't seem to matter what their party of choice was: No one seemed happy about their candidates this Super Tuesday.
One Democrat told me that he voted early (prior to today) for
Hillary Clinton. His sole reason for doing so was to block
Barack Obama, who he views as completely unacceptable to him. Another gentlemen-one of those that I usually take morning coffee with down at the drugstore-didn't say who he was voting for (he is normally inclined to the Democrats), but he let it be known he wasn't a happy camper and even made light of the process.
A lady I spoke with who I normally see every day told me that she would vote, but felt like she was making a bad choice no matter who she cast her ballot for. "Just put their names in a bag and shake it up, then draw one out-it's all the same this year." She commented that this is the worst election she can remember.
One individual told me he was not going to vote in the primary at all. He said he does vote, but this year he just felt more comfortable waiting until the General Election.
Discontent, it seems, is very much bipartisan.
Labels: Presidential Election, Tennessee politics
Super Shrove Tuesday
Today's the day, and at the moment I am flipping through the channels and listening to some of the pundits on the various morning shows. Beginning at 6:00AM I started moving back and forth between
Fox and Friends and
Morning Joe and managed to see or hear every major candidate in the race in both parties except for
John McCain-and I think he'll be on somewhere in just a bit.
One thing that can quickly be gleaned from watching the morning shows today is that the pundits really don't have a clue what is going to happen tonight-and I am not comfortable making predictions about the overall winner, because delegate counts make as much of a difference in the outcome as votes, and I think there are going to be some States tonight (California is one big example) where the vote breakdown allows for a candidate to pick up serious delegates without winning outright, but I am willing to go out on a limb and say that Mike Huckabee is going to do better than expected, especially in Southern States that will vote (he will win Arkansas, of course).
It is also going to be possible for
Mitt Romney to survive after tonight, but to do so he has to cut into Huckabee's vote in the South enough to prove that he can unite conservatives. Romney will not win Utah today, he will steamroll that contest-not only because of the Mormon vote, but because the other candidates have practically ceded it to him. Romney has to prove that he is capable of bringing conservatives together, and one of his biggest problems is that he has given the Democrats plenty of flip-flop ammunition for the fall campaign, no matter who that party happens to choose.
Don't be surprised if
Barack Obama does better than State polls are saying-the Democratic race will likely still be going strong in the morning
Labels: Presidential Election
The Manchester Union-Leader you aren't
The
Knoxville News-Sentinel endorsed
Barack Obama and John McCain in tomorrow's primary, respectively.
On
McCain:
McCain, at 71, having survived as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, might be
considered Obama's exact opposite, but he has shown a remarkable resilience in
coming back from having been written off early in the campaign, with primary
wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
A recent Wall Street Journal article identified McCain's Republicanism
as more Theodore Roosevelt than George W. Bush. We think that, after the last
eight years, a majority in the nation will be OK with that. Although some
contend he is anti-business, McCain defines his role differently. "I'm not
anti-business," he told the Journal. "I'm anti a process that gives them special
favors, leverage over average citizens."
Note that there is no discussion of McCain's record on immigration, but considering their McCain endorsement today, the editorial board at the
KNS continues to prove that it has the editorial bias many of its local critics accuse it of having, especially considering that McCain's record on immigration is out of step with the views of a majority of Tennesseans. John McCain is likely to be in a tight race here, and it is clear that the
News-Sentinel is trying to do their part to insure that McCain wins in a split conservative vote tomorrow.
There are a few news outlets who can say they are editorially conservative and still get away with endorsing John McCain because of their past editorial record. The
News-Sentinel does not hold a place in that group.
Labels: News Media, Presidential Election, Tennessee politics
John McCain: "Nomination is mine, mine, mine!"
First Read points out that
John McCain sounded as though here were already the Republican nominee at
a rally Fairfield, Connecticut yesterday:
"In her short time in the United States Senate, the senator from New York -- Senator Clinton -- has gotten $500 billion worth of pork barrel projects," McCain said. "My friend, that kind of thing is going to stop when I'm President of the United States of America… This spending increases interest rates. It makes you pay more for you home loan mortgage. It makes you pay more for anything that you do."
"We will win Connecticut," McCain said, referring to Tuesday's primary. "I will get the nomination of my party and I will campaign in this state. And my friends in November and October and September and August and July, I will campaign in the state of Connecticut and I will win it and we will win the state of Connecticut in the election in November with your help."
McCain said essentially the same thing at Vanderbilt yesterday when he declared that he "would be" the nominee and announced that he was going to "bring the party together." McCain sounded more confident at this point in the race than I have heard any candidate on the Republican side sound up to this point. Of course, many in the mainstream press have already presumed McCain to be the nominee, and are plotting for a McCain-Clinton campaign in the same way that Life magazine was analyzing how the Dewey cabinet would look in 1948.
It is true that there are some (not all) polls that show McCain with a sizable national lead and he does have a sizable lead in several Super Tuesday States. The one problem with all of this is that the voting tomorrow isn't over and most people in the relevant States have yet to vote (I won't do so for another 25 hours or so). John McCain sounds very confident and he certainly has reason to be.
So did the Patriots yesterday.
Labels: Presidential Election
Joining the team at MBA and Newsweek
Occasionally something will happen here at
The World which changes the way we do things on this weblog for awhile, and the reality of the 2008 Presidential Election has certainly changed the focus here a bit. Regulars know we devote a lot of time to State and local politics here in Tennessee, and that has greatly expanded readership here in this very blog-rich State. With Super Tuesday tomorrow and then a long election season ahead, the presidential race can't escape notice here-and if you think
The World is covering it heavily now, there is more to come in the weeks and months ahead.
I've received a couple of e-mails asking why I'm not part of the team covering Super Tuesday for the
Knoxville News-Sentinel. I think the
KNS has put together an
outstanding group of bloggers to cover the election on the ground tomorrow, and because of the unique local issues involved in the vote in Knox County, the
News-Sentinel needs folks who can be on the ground there in some of the key precincts covering those races in a way that I just can't do. As for me, I have a different assignment...
I'm very pleased to announce that
The World will be joining the team of bloggers at the
Media Bloggers Association who will be giving our unique perspectives and lending our voices to
Newsweek's online coverage of Campaign 2008 at
Newsweek's online blog agregator
The Ruckus. The group of bloggers that MBA and
Newsweek have put together to cover the election are some of the very best in the country, and I am extremely humbled to share space with such a diverse group of liberals and conservatives from around the country (not to mention being on the left rail with
Captain Ed Morrissey). There are a few kinks in the agregator, but hopefully those will be ironed out today.
I wanted our Tennessee regulars to know this because if you see this blog taking a bit more of a national turn in the months ahead, you will know why. Don't worry, though-just because there is going to be a lot more coverage of the presidential campaign doesn't mean we're letting up on Tennessee one bit.
Labels: News Media, Presidential Election, Tennessee politics
Two sides to the story
The word is out that
Knox County Government and all of its shenanigans are to be found in
today's New York Times. After everything that has happened in Knox County over the last year, it is no wonder that the whole business is finally making the big time-the pages of the country's largest Democratic Party mouthpiece. One thing that is noteworthy about the
Times piece is that the
Knox County Commission (and especially
Lumpy Lambert) are raked over the coals in the article, but this is the treatment of the corruption of Knox County Mayor
Mike Ragsdale:
The county’s public officials helped to propel the reform movement just by being themselves. All year, for example, reports of mismanagement dogged County Mayor Mike Ragsdale. And embarrassing testimony from lawsuits filed by several citizens and The News Sentinel’s editor, Mr. McElroy, led to a jury decision that the commission’s Black Wednesday performance had violated the state’s open-meetings law, forcing those “replacement” officials to vacate their seats.
One paragraph, and that was it. The scandalous behavior of Team Ragsdale has a much longer history than the shenanigans of the Knox County Commission on January 31, yet Ragsdale gets the easy treatment from the
Times'
Dan Barry. Barry even writes a suggestive sentence implying that the county mayor should appoint certain county offices.
Could various political fiefdoms — the county clerk, the property assessor, the register of deeds — be broken up by having those elected positions appointed by the county mayor instead?
That wouldn't be politically beneficial to Ragsdale, would it?
I somehow think those advocating for this kind of "change" would be singing a different tune very quickly if
Tim Hutchison were elected Knox County Mayor in 2010-and if Tim runs, he would likely win. Why? Back when
WBIR ran
its poll on the dysfunction of county government in Knox County, the one division of government that continued to get very high approval among Knox Countians was county law enforcement-the branch with which most Knox Countians
still associate Tim Hutchison. If and when Hutchison is elected Mayor of Knox County, expect pro-Ragsdale forces and liberal Democrats (in some cases these are one in the same) to whine like children from whom a lollipop was taken.
There is little doubt that the Knox County Commission is deserving of the attention as well as the scorn of Knox County voters in many cases, and
they may get it. There is another side to the Knox County chaos, however, and that story is not one that
The New York Times chose to tell.
NOTE: As for Commissioner Lambert, he can speak for himself. I have spoken with Lumpy and he has agreed that after all of the February 5th hoopla dies down, he is going to appear on
Oatney On the Air for a no-holds barred interview.
Labels: Local politics
Old unreliable
It wasn't terribly long ago in recent times when political scientists and pundits could point to the national polls and say that those polls were reliable, and it was generally accepted that they were. As one of my old college professors put it "the polls are rarely ever wrong." History has proven that statement to be largely correct. In 1996, the
Bob Dole campaign tried to put a brave face on a futile bid for the White House by saying that they didn't believe the polls. The national polls were proven correct even in 2000, when all outlets essentially predicted that the election would fall within the margin of error-and it certainly did.
Those inclined to ignore polls often point to the
1948 election as proof that the polls can get it wrong. What is often forgotten about the '48 vote is that Gallup canceled polling a month before the election itself, believing that New York Governor
Thomas Dewey had an insurmountable lead. The press of the time was left believing that the last poll taken was accurate, when data would likely have shown
Harry Truman overtaking Dewey in the days leading up to the vote.
Today's polling seems to be far more erratic and less reliable than recent history would suggest, especially where Tuesday's multi-State Republican primaries are concerned. Rasmussen has
John McCain leading nationally over Mitt Romney as of Sunday, but only by two points-well within the margin of error. On Saturday, Rasmussen had
McCain and Romney tied at 30% apiece.
The Gallup Organization, once the "Old Reliable" of mainstream media polling outfits, published a poll yesterday showing
John McCain with a 19 point lead over Romney nationally. These polls garner such radically different results that it is impossible that both are right, and it would not be unreasonable for the politically uninformed reader to think that both are BS.
One flaw in national polling for primaries is that they are "true" State-by-State individual contests, and national polls are often not reflective of the attitudes of primary voters within a particular State (this phenomenon has been
discussed here recently). Even State polling is proving barely effective in estimating outcomes. Rasmussen and Insider Advantage place John McCain in the lead in Tennessee, but
Rasmussen says Romney is in second and Insider Advantage says
Mike Huckabee is in the number two spot with undecided voters deciding the outcome.
Public Policy Polling and
WSMV-TV Memphis each showed Mike Huckabee in the lead in their polls taken last week.
The results of many election polls are now so confusing and oftentimes contradictory that it is difficult to see them as reliable sources for the direction of an election-especially a primary.
Labels: Presidential Election
