The World According to Oatney
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
God Save This Honorable CourtOne thing that both the press, which is friendly to Barack Obama, and the party opposite does not seem to understand in these closing days of the presidential campaign is the willingness of conservatives to fight for this election. Our people refuse to give up, and will not go down without a very hard fight:
“We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot but it’s worth fighting for.”
At this point in both 2000 and 2004, Republicans were behind, and by agregate numbers that are very similar to the numbers we now face. As in those two elections, Hollywood and all of its money was behind the Democrats. The most pivital issue in 2004 for conservatives was the Supreme Court-and the High Court did prove to be the one thing George W. Bush delivered on. The Supreme Court is the great issue on which this election turns. We know that if Barack Obama is elected president, he will do everything in his power to insure that aborticide on demand, even up to the very moment of birth, is the law in this nation forever.
The stock market will come and go, and economies run in cycles, but Supreme Court Justices are appointed for life. The opposition knows this and that is the reason that they are so gung-ho about this election (ask Sharon Cobb). This is precisely why conservatives will not give up or give in until the very last legal vote is counted.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
What Landslide?For all the talk about how far ahead Barack Obama is supposed to be in the polls, now comes the first significant poll since the last presidential debate from the Associated Press. What does it tell us, Obama in a landslide? Hardly:
The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day."I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.
McCain has posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year; he now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26 earlier. He has surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.
When rural and suburban America vote in unity, we've shown in 2000 and 2004 that we can effectively veto the large Democratic turnout in big, high-tax, welfare state cities. If John McCain continues to gain among rural voters and those earning under $50,000, what you end up with is a very close election-one that John McCain becomes increasingly likely to win. If McCain does end up pulling off what could be the biggest upset in American electoral history, he will have the Republican base to thank for it. Rural and small-town America will have turned out in droves for the Republican ticket.
In addition to new polls showing the race is within the margin of error, Michael Barone in The Wall Street Journal questions whether such a wide and varied assortment of polls can be trusted in the first place.
To start with, political polling is inherently imperfect. Academic pollsters say that to get a really random sample, you should go back to a designated respondent in a specific household time and again until you get a response. But political pollsters who must report results overnight have to take the respondents they can reach. So they weight the results of respondents in different groups to get a sample that approximates the whole population they're sampling.
Another problem is the increasing number of cell phone-only households. Gallup and Pew have polled such households, and found their candidate preferences aren't much different from those with landlines; and some pollsters have included cell-phone numbers in their samples. A third problem is that an increasing number of Americans refuse to be polled. We can't know for sure if they're different in some pertinent respects from those who are willing to answer questions.
Yet there was a curious anomaly: In most primaries Mr. Obama tended to receive higher percentages in exit polls than he did from the voters. What accounts for this discrepancy?
For the record, Michael Barone still believes that Barack Obama has a slight advantage, as do I. However, as in 1948, opinion can change in the final week of the campaign, and as we saw in 2004, exit polls are no longer an accurate barometer because an increasing number of people do not wish to share their voting preferences with pollsters no matter what those happen to be.
Those of you in the party opposite who were hoping for a quick election night victory may be in for another very long evening.
Labels: Presidential Election
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
All Your Base Are Belong To UsSharon Cobb wrote a piece about undecided voters, and in it she wondered why some folks would still be "undecided." Through some anonymous commenters, mostly liberal, Sharon now sees that some informed people really can't make up their minds. In the comments section, in response to one person pointing out that Democrats do a wonderful job of driving away undecided voters, Sharon writes:
I live in the Vanderbilt area, and I can't believe how many young people are for McCain. I can only hope they aren't going home to vote and aren't registered here! I live in a condo building where a lot of students rent from the owners, and the only students I've met who are supporting Obama are from Europe, Asia or Africa and can't vote here.
It seems like the world wants him, I'm just not so sure about America, and certainly Tennessee won't go for him.
Some folks will say that this is because the Vandy students are just spoiled rich kids. While some of them are, I am sure, all of the demographic information that we have about this election tells us that young college kids-especially upscale college students-are supporting Barack Obama. Perhaps the Vanderbilt youngsters Sharon is alluding to are a sign of hope that this election is not too far gone just yet.
As for the notion that "the world wants him," it should be remembered that as much as the Left would like it to be the world's election, it is our election-we live here-and if Obama screws the country over the way that Jimmy Carter did by pursuing many of the same policies (remember, Carter was also elected in the midst of an economic downturn), we are the ones who have to live with it and suffer the worst. To quote the popular '90's internet saying, "all your base are belong to us."
If John McCain wins this election, it will be because of undecided voters between the ages of 40 and 70, people who remember the Carter Administration and would not like to relive the era.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
News-Sentinel Trying To Weasel Its Way Out of a Public Presidential EndorsementThere seems to be no small debate brewing at the Knoxville News-Sentinel about whether the paper should endorse a candidate for President, as has been the custom in years' past. The KNS is taking a poll to ask readers whether it should make an endorsement. After all, says the reasoning, no one really cares about newspaper endorsements any longer, right?
It is true that newspaper endorsements do not carry the weight that they once did, but who a paper endorses for various political offices-but especially for President-gives the reader a clear picture of where the paper's editorial bias happens to fall. Every newspaper has such biases, but many want to conceal that reality so that they can slant the news to their liking without readers remembering their editorial line. The News-Sentinel has long shown itself to be a paper that is far more liberal in its outlook than the community that it purports to cover.
As much as I don't like that reality, the News-Sentinel has the right to take whatever editorial line it might choose to take. One has to wonder if the present reluctance of the KNS Editorial Board to endorse a candidate is really tied to the fact that many on the staff may support Barack Obama, and perhaps the editorial board does as well. Most East Tennesseans will be voting for John McCain, and that's just reality. Perhaps the News-Sentinel is less concerned about not endorsing candidates because the practice is outdated, and more concerned that if they endorse who they would really like to, the paper would lose a ton of subscribers.
The reason the News-Sentinel is trying to poll its way out of an endorsement is because they know the backlash that would come if they make their endorsement public. The News Sentinel should not use an internet poll as a means to play the coward and tell the people where the newspaper stands.
Monday, October 20, 2008
The Electoral Map This Week: October 20This week's electoral map marks the first time in our weekly series that we can project that were the election held today, Barack Obama would have enough electoral votes to win without carrying any of the remaining States we are classifying as toss-ups:
If this projection represented the actual electoral vote total, John McCain could carry Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada-all of our remaining swing States-and he would still be defeated by an electoral vote total of 277-261. This is on the strength of the polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia, which continue to hold steady giving Barack Obama anywhere from a four to seven point lead in that State for the third consecutive week. It is on this basis that Virginia is moved from "toss-up" into the Democratic column, giving Obama the majority.
If Colorado's trend remains the same, it will be moved among the blue States next week.
Are there signs of hope for John McCain? West Virginia was a toss-up last week, and the Mountain State looks to be moving back toward a Republican direction. Further, even though Obama's lead in Virginia is now clear, it is not unassailable and Virginia could go back to toss-up status. One thing Virginians have to love about this presidential race is that their State may be the one that decides the election.
Labels: Presidential Election
Sunday, October 19, 2008
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