The Electoral Map This Week: October 20This week's electoral map marks the first time in our weekly series that we can project that were the election held today, Barack Obama would have enough electoral votes to win without carrying any of the remaining States we are classifying as toss-ups:
If this projection represented the actual electoral vote total, John McCain could carry Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada-all of our remaining swing States-and he would still be defeated by an electoral vote total of 277-261. This is on the strength of the polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia, which continue to hold steady giving Barack Obama anywhere from a four to seven point lead in that State for the third consecutive week. It is on this basis that Virginia is moved from "toss-up" into the Democratic column, giving Obama the majority.
If Colorado's trend remains the same, it will be moved among the blue States next week.
Are there signs of hope for John McCain? West Virginia was a toss-up last week, and the Mountain State looks to be moving back toward a Republican direction. Further, even though Obama's lead in Virginia is now clear, it is not unassailable and Virginia could go back to toss-up status. One thing Virginians have to love about this presidential race is that their State may be the one that decides the election.
Labels: Presidential Election