The Electoral Map This Week: October 13The only way to characterize this week's map is one of bad news if you support the Republican ticket.
Virginia and North Carolina are now toss-ups in a bona fide way. Internal numbers in North Carolina from last week seem to give John McCain a small advantage there, but not enough to move the State from toss-up to McCain. If numbers stabilize in Virginia, this would force us to move Virginia into the blue column, and this would give Barack Obama well over 270 electoral votes.
More signs of trouble for John McCain? West Virginia, the bulwark of traditional Appalachian working-class anger toward Barack Obama is now a toss-up. I have to confess that I never believed I would see John McCain's lead in the Mountaineer State come anywhere near ebbing away. McCain may yet win West Virginia, but the very reality that he had to fight for votes in a State where suspicion of his opponent still runs extremely high is not a good indicator of the direction his campaign is taking.
Perhaps the most serious turn is Missouri into the toss-up column. John McCain was in a position to carry Missouri until as late as last week. With Missouri now beginning to move, the bellwether is showing that the election could be turning. Every winner in a presidential election since 1960 has won Missouri, and the Show Me State has chosen the winner in every presidential election since 1904 with the exception of 1956.
Labels: Presidential Election