Monday, October 13, 2008

The Electoral Map This Week: October 13

The only way to characterize this week's map is one of bad news if you support the Republican ticket.
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Virginia and North Carolina are now toss-ups in a bona fide way. Internal numbers in North Carolina from last week seem to give John McCain a small advantage there, but not enough to move the State from toss-up to McCain. If numbers stabilize in Virginia, this would force us to move Virginia into the blue column, and this would give Barack Obama well over 270 electoral votes.

More signs of trouble for John McCain? West Virginia, the bulwark of traditional Appalachian working-class anger toward Barack Obama is now a toss-up. I have to confess that I never believed I would see John McCain's lead in the Mountaineer State come anywhere near ebbing away. McCain may yet win West Virginia, but the very reality that he had to fight for votes in a State where suspicion of his opponent still runs extremely high is not a good indicator of the direction his campaign is taking.

Perhaps the most serious turn is Missouri into the toss-up column. John McCain was in a position to carry Missouri until as late as last week. With Missouri now beginning to move, the bellwether is showing that the election could be turning. Every winner in a presidential election since 1960 has won Missouri, and the Show Me State has chosen the winner in every presidential election since 1904 with the exception of 1956.

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4 Comments:

At Monday, October 13, 2008 9:47:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David,
The FL gov disses McCain and goes to Disneyland ... what is going on is the implosion of the entire GOP ticket. This map is the beginning manifestation of this. I have beleived for a long time that this election was going to be close. No longer. This election is going to be a blow out.

SteveMule

 
At Tuesday, October 14, 2008 3:12:00 AM, Blogger Insane said...

Like someone said on one of the talking head shows, it looks like 30 years of the Republican Reganomic theory will bite the dust. McCain now has the evangelicals to court, not the fiscal Republicans. They are a farce, as in bail out type farce. No wonder he is flailing in his campaign. Lack of identity has run him ragged against the fiercely micromanaged campaign of Obama-Biden. McCain has demonstrated that he can't even run a decent campaign, let alone the country. Republicanism is ready for its reinvention. This should be interesting. Let me see, it involves stirring the base with trailer park bling, pregnant kids and their drop out daddies. And let's not forget the importance of alcohol fortunes that fueled McCain's campaigns. His divorce, and chase of someone younger and more exciting. Plus, putting country first with someone like Palin who they can bring up to speed to lead the world in short time? Yeah Republicans, you have some reinventing to do.

 
At Tuesday, October 14, 2008 10:39:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have faith David theres a lot of time left to turn this around. The main reason that McCain is behind is that he is being swamped by Obamas money. In some states Obama is outspending him 6 to 1.

If the media continues to write off McCain then everyone will believe it, and it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. Not to mention it will surpress the turnout and create an even larger win for BO.

 
At Saturday, October 18, 2008 8:50:00 PM, Blogger William said...

heh...

 

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