Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super Shrove Tuesday

Today's the day, and at the moment I am flipping through the channels and listening to some of the pundits on the various morning shows. Beginning at 6:00AM I started moving back and forth between Fox and Friends and Morning Joe and managed to see or hear every major candidate in the race in both parties except for John McCain-and I think he'll be on somewhere in just a bit.

One thing that can quickly be gleaned from watching the morning shows today is that the pundits really don't have a clue what is going to happen tonight-and I am not comfortable making predictions about the overall winner, because delegate counts make as much of a difference in the outcome as votes, and I think there are going to be some States tonight (California is one big example) where the vote breakdown allows for a candidate to pick up serious delegates without winning outright, but I am willing to go out on a limb and say that Mike Huckabee is going to do better than expected, especially in Southern States that will vote (he will win Arkansas, of course).

It is also going to be possible for Mitt Romney to survive after tonight, but to do so he has to cut into Huckabee's vote in the South enough to prove that he can unite conservatives. Romney will not win Utah today, he will steamroll that contest-not only because of the Mormon vote, but because the other candidates have practically ceded it to him. Romney has to prove that he is capable of bringing conservatives together, and one of his biggest problems is that he has given the Democrats plenty of flip-flop ammunition for the fall campaign, no matter who that party happens to choose.

Don't be surprised if Barack Obama does better than State polls are saying-the Democratic race will likely still be going strong in the morning



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