Friday, February 08, 2008

The fat lady has not sung

Nearly everyone who is following the presidential campaign knows the Democratic race isn't over, but the press is doing all they can to convince people the Republican nomination is sewn up:

Sen. John McCain awoke Wednesday with a commanding lead in the race for Republican delegates while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney plans to meet with aides after a disappointing Super Tuesday showing.


In spite of John McCain's very strong lead, however, the nominating contests are not over:

While everyone is proclaiming McCain the presumptive nominee after Romney’s exit, the GOP race still isn’t over. And do remember that McCain has never been a good front-runner -- he has always seemed to trip up when in that position. Huckabee is still in the race, and his last stand is Virginia. He may not say it, but it's pretty obvious when one looks at the potential Republican electorate. Should many indies and moderate Republicans decide their vote is better spent in the Dem primary, then Huckabee's passionate evangelical supporters could be enough to keep things close.
As often as I fault the press for the way that they cover our electoral process (that was one of the prime reasons that this blog was started), I do understand that the media is largely playing delegate math, and the reality is that Mike Huckabee will need to do better than expected-and probably win 75% of all remaining primaries and caucuses-to actually win the nomination. However, the process isn't over until the last primary, or the last remaining trailing candidate drops out of the race-and neither of those things have happened so far today.

If the press engages in a coronation of McCain as the GOP nominee before the process is complete (which it appears they are doing) the news media stands to be the party that could be primarily responsible for depressing voter turnout in remaining contests, including Louisiana on Saturday and in the Chesapeake Bay next Tuesday. As long as the nomination is not officially clinched, the press ought to behave as though the race is not over so as to encourage voter participation-unless the mainstream press doesn't want people voting in Republican primaries.

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4 Comments:

At Friday, February 08, 2008 3:03:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David,
The press is lazy. I'll give you that - it's been a prime liberal gripe for some time.
However, you have two really bad candidates. Next to Reagan, all of the GOP candidates time around would have been 2nd or 3rd tier candidates at best. (And nobody liked Romney - he'll re-discover that in 2012.)
That's why voter turn out will be less than wanted.
It's McCan. Who else do you have?

SteveMule

 
At Friday, February 08, 2008 4:40:00 PM, Blogger Dave Oatney said...

Steve;
And all that said, my point still stands-the primaries are not over, and the press is doing the public a great disservice by conducting themselves as if they are.

 
At Friday, February 08, 2008 10:08:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David,
What are you going to do? What can you do? Who do you have? who else do you have?
Over? Baring an emperically verifiable intervention from the Good LORD Himself, McCain's what you got. That's all you got - and the media and everyone else knows it, too.
Do the math. Anyone that knows the process, can add numbers, and can appreciate the absolute nonprobability of a Huckabee upset knows that McCain's what you got. Knows that McCain's all you got.
And suppossing, just suppossing Huckabee did pull off an upset and actually win it at the last moment? Guess what? He'd be all you got!

SteveMule

 
At Saturday, February 09, 2008 12:25:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David,
I just saw (2 feb, 12:30PM) that Paul is dropping out. What's thatleave you?

SteveMule

 

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