Friday, August 22, 2008

How Bad Does McCain Want It?

CNN's John King points out that for Democrats, the month of August seems to be where they lose their elections:

In 2004, for example, John Kerry led most national polls heading into
August; his biggest lead was in the five-point range. But by early September,
some surveys had President Bush up by as many as 10 points.

The Democratic collapse of 20 years ago is the stuff of legend. Michael
Dukakis was up 17 points in some national polling after his July convention, but
that lead started to fade in August and in the end Dukakis won just 10

So will it happen again?

The numbers aren’t as dramatic as 1988, but they do have many Democrats

In mid-July, the CNN poll of polls - an averaging of major national
polling data - showed Obama with a six-point lead over Republican John McCain.
Now, as we prepare for next week’s Democratic convention, Obama has a tiny
1-point edge over McCain: 45% to 44%.

Zogby has John McCain up by a full six points of course, and that is well outside the margin of error. Barack Obama is hoping that his announcement of a running mate tomorrow will cause his numbers to dramatically increase. Oh, he'll get a bump in the polls, to be sure-as he will out of the Democratic National Convention-but will it last?

In the next two weeks, we will see just how bad John McCain wants to win the General Election. His campaign is already showing signs of turning the race around, and if he can choose a solid conservative running mate to energize his base, he has a real shot at victory in November. If, however, McCain chooses a moderate or a liberal as his Number Two, he will have allowed a golden opportunity slip through his fingers-and perhaps he will have done so on purpose. John McCain has the ability to put Barack Obama away...if he actually wants to do it.

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