The World According to Oatney

The Electoral Map This Week (August 18)

This week's electoral college map shows some very interesting developments:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

The World is ready to say that Colorado is switching from "toss up" to "leans McCain" after McCain showed his first viable lead there since June in a Rasmussen poll August 13. Although McCain's lead is still within the margin of error, he has steadily gained in every poll and has now overtaken Obama, and I believe that trend will continue.

On the other hand, Barack Obama's lead in Michigan is holding steady enough that I believe we can take Michigan from the toss-up category we had placed her in and say that the Wolverine State would go for Barack Obama if the election were held today.

Nevada is still in the toss-up column this week, though I wrestled with switching it to John McCain because he now shows a slight lead and has trended positively there over the last three weeks. I am still not quite comfortable enough that we are seeing a stable trend to make the switch.

Virginia is in a dead even percentage point tie, and were the election held today, it may hinge on the outcome in the Old Dominion.

Our toss-up States this week: New Hampshire (which could begin to move next week), New Mexico, Minnesota-where John McCain has closed to within four and is gaining-Ohio, and Virginia.

Labels: Democrats, Presidential Election, Republican Party

posted by Deacon David Oatney @ 10:54 AM