Monday, August 18, 2008

The Electoral Map This Week (August 18)

This week's electoral college map shows some very interesting developments:
<p><strong>><a href=''>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

The World is ready to say that Colorado is switching from "toss up" to "leans McCain" after McCain showed his first viable lead there since June in a Rasmussen poll August 13. Although McCain's lead is still within the margin of error, he has steadily gained in every poll and has now overtaken Obama, and I believe that trend will continue.

On the other hand, Barack Obama's lead in Michigan is holding steady enough that I believe we can take Michigan from the toss-up category we had placed her in and say that the Wolverine State would go for Barack Obama if the election were held today.

Nevada is still in the toss-up column this week, though I wrestled with switching it to John McCain because he now shows a slight lead and has trended positively there over the last three weeks. I am still not quite comfortable enough that we are seeing a stable trend to make the switch.

Virginia is in a dead even percentage point tie, and were the election held today, it may hinge on the outcome in the Old Dominion.

Our toss-up States this week: New Hampshire (which could begin to move next week), New Mexico, Minnesota-where John McCain has closed to within four and is gaining-Ohio, and Virginia.

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At Monday, August 18, 2008 12:45:00 PM, Blogger Bill said...

McCain has now pulled even according to Dayton Daily News.

At Tuesday, August 19, 2008 11:57:00 PM, Blogger S said...

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.




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