The Democrats' Path to Defeat
Barack Obama may indeed win the Democratic nomination by sheer force of the number of delegates that he has managed to win so far and because of the justifiable fear on the part of Democratic Party leadership that failure to nominate Obama would lead to the key interests within the Democratic apparatus fracturing apart. However, if the Democrats nominate Obama, all signs point to a General Election defeat:Barack Obama's problem winning votes from working-class whites is showing no sign of going away, and their impression of him is getting worse.
In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll in April, 53 percent of whites who have not completed college viewed Obama unfavorably, up a dozen percentage points from November. During that period, the numbers viewing Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain negatively have stayed about even.
In Democratic primaries held on or before Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, whites who have not finished college favored the New York senator by a cumulative 59 percent to 32 percent, according to exit polls of voters conducted for The Associated Press and the television networks.
In primaries since Feb. 5, that group has favored Clinton by 64 percent to 34 percent. That includes Ohio and Pennsylvania, in which working-class whites have favored Clinton by 44 and 41 percentage points respectively.
Recent voting patterns underscore Obama's continued poor performance with these voters, who are often pivotal in general election swing states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
A rather elitist attitude has developed within certain circles of the Democratic Party with regard to working-class whites-a sort of "we know what's best for you" attitude. This mentality essentially says that Democratic Party Leadership knows more about blue collar whites than blue collar whites know themselves. It also plays up the divide between the so-called "educated" white vote and the so-called "uneducated" white vote. The pollsters are correct that such a difference does exist in this election cycle, but it isn't permanent. It has been proven over and over in repeated surveys since the 1960's that the older college educated whites become, the more likely they are to become Republicans. That leaves working-class white voters as the backbone of the Democratic Party, right? There are, after all, still more blue collar whites than any other demographic group of voters.
The Democratic Party has chosen to ignore the concerns of this numerous group, and it cost them defeat in 2000 and in 2004. Ronald Reagan understood that in the modern era, an election can't be won without blue collar white voters-that these people must be brought into any winning coalition. Bill Clinton understood that, too-although as he turned on blue collar voters, they turned on his legacy in 2000.
A candidate from either political party who attempts to win without reaching out to blue collar whites will not be beaten-they will be crushed.
While less educated whites tend to vote less frequently than better educated voters, they are important because of their sheer number.Exit polls show they have comprised three in 10 voters in Democratic contests so far, a group that cannot be ignored in a contest that has seen Obama maintain a slim lead. They made up 43 percent of all voters in the 2004 presidential contest, when they heavily favored President Bush over Democrat John Kerry.
If working-class whites turn out in numbers the way they did in 1972 for Nixon, and 1980 and 1984 for Ronald Reagan, Obama could be looking at McGovern or Mondale numbers.
For those who don't remember their history well, George McGovern carried one State in 1972 for the Democrats-Massachusetts. Like Al Gore (Tennessee), McGovern could not carry his home state of South Dakota. Walter Mondale carried his home State of Minnesota in 1984 by around 5,000 votes-it was the only State Mondale won.
Labels: Democrats, Presidential Election
posted by Deacon David Oatney @ 9:00 AM
12 Comments:
I find it rather rich coming from the gal who married bILL cLINTON AND MADE SO MUCH MONEY OF DUBIOUS PAST TO try to sell as eleitist a guy whose mother was single and who has to thank food stamps to have food in his plate.
I am aware this belongs to the kitchen sink attitude, but it certainly does not bode well for any reconciliation after the primary... To sell one soul to be elected may getgo elected true, but then it means that you will in turn be easily prey to any form of corruption once you get the prize . after all, if your moramls sink that low they can but always sink deeper. remembert that and ponder. one soul once gone there is none left.
hrc is the woman who conviniently closed her eyes on her husband misdemeanours on the single purpose to get through the selection /election at NY senate race. Obame offers me hope and something to look at to aim at, HRC reminds me how much corrupt is the world, well I prefer to aim at teh pursuit of happiness rather teh pursuit of selfish interest.
Boy if I couldn't use better grammar than the previous idiot I would use anonymous as well. People like that are the reason democrats are in trouble.
David your analysis of the democrat chaos was correct as usual keep up the good work.
As usual your comments are bias and divisive.No matter which Dem. wins the nomination McCain has his work cut out for him.My hope is that he is thinking like you,that he has it wrapped up and sits on his ass and keeps flip-flopping like he has.Worse case scenario McCain wins and he left holding the bag of shit Bush has left and you will have no one to blame.But I'm sure you will find some reason that the "lefties"are at fault.You know the "evil"ones your "enemies"
Hey "G" you are a bitter bitter person who hasn't got a clue. Yes, McCain will have his work cut out for him but the good news is the public looks worse upon either democrat than McCain and as for the bag of shit most of it can be placed at the reid and pelosi doorstep.
You are spot on, and I am a Democrat. This election was ours to lose and we are going to lose it. George Bush and the Republican Party have all but destroyed this country. Thanks to the Democratic Party leadership, that would be the John Kerry/Edward Kennedy types, that have pushed Obama down our throats almost from day one while preying on the stupidity of "the kids." Kids,who by the way, have not done a d... thing for this country along with their idol, Obama. Mccain will get to finish the job of destroying the country. I am bitter, hurt, and extremely disappointed. But then the people pushing Obama, and flooding his coffers with money don't have to worry about gas prices, and struggling to make ends meet because they are wealthy, or upper middle class. The rest remind me of poor, and lower middle class Republicans who despite the obvious, keep right on voting Republican.
Hey anon your comments surprise me especially the last about poor republicans. However you are right.
So you think we got to this place of high gas prices,falling dollar,trillion dollar deficit,inflation,the cost of food going up,nothing done on immigration and lost respect around the world.Reid and Pelosi did all this?It is this type of thinking that will not help in fixing the problems that we have.Open your eyes and take alook around!Maybe I do have a clue.And as far as being "bitter"you should be bitter for the goverment getting the U.S. in such bad shape.Or maybe you're happy with the way things are?
I am not content with everything as is but I do not lay it all at Bush, Pelosi, or Dingy Harry. I lay it at your feet as well as my feet because in case you guys have forgotten we are the government and we control who and what it does.
We try to control what happens by the vote,but in the end they control what goes on and the president accepts or vetos the policy.So Bush,like the ceo of a company,must accept the responsibility.It comes with the job!
LOL "G". Hopefully you will wake up sooner or later.
It's hard to argue with reason!
I know it is but you continue to try G but hey it is ok you will wake up someday!
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