Friday, July 21, 2006

The little longshot that can

Rob Huddleston has pointed out (as has Jay Bush) that Bob Corker's recent ad shows that he is desperate and in trouble, largely at the hands of Ed Bryant. The polls also show that a Van Hilleary withdrawal would greatly enhance Bryant's chances of victory, despite the 10% or so residual vote Hilleary would get because his name is already on the ballot. This reality is worth noting because rumors are circulating in some circles that Congressman Hilleary will announce a withdrawal from the race today.

As much as I think such a withdrawal would do wonders for the conservative movement, I agree with Kleinheider that Hilleary likely will not do so, not because Hilleary cannot accept defeat, but because he has come too far at too great an expense to withdraw when voting has in fact begun. I still believe Bryant can win the Primary, but the campaign must engage in an all-out blitz that makes Corker's efforts look puny.

It is a longshot, but it can be done.


At Sunday, July 23, 2006 12:15:00 PM, Blogger Steve Mule said...

I hate to be a bum kick ... but ... Corker has the Primary in the bag. His attack ads on Bryant and Hillary were the last round of new ads that he will run. Their purpose will be simply be to increase the margin of his victory. Had he been in "trouble" he would have run them sooner. He's been in command and in the lead since this race started. It'll be Corker vs Ford Jr. after August.


At Monday, July 24, 2006 8:57:00 PM, Blogger Dave Oatney said...

It is a cardinal rule-people in the lead heavily in the Primary do not run negative ads, that will nearly always backfire.

Thing is, the "heavy lead" has nearly always come in polls FROM the Corker camp.


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