Monday, December 05, 2011

Super Tuesday?

Tennessee's influence in the presidential race may just have increased:

If Cain endorses Gingrich, he may throw more conservative support in Tennessee behind Newt, even as we know that Haslam family money and political push are behind Mitt Romney. That kind of political pull may wield results in Statewide races, but in 2008, we saw a clear backlash from social conservatives against the prevailing establishment wisdom when they chose Mike Huckabee in the Tennessee primary over John McCain or Mitt Romney. If more conservative primary voters are in that kind of mood in 2012, and they see Gingrich as their only option against a former Massachusetts Governor with a liberal record who can't even decide if he is pro-life this week, they may choose Gingrich as well.

Just as the 2012 presidential campaign is very fluid at this point, so is the primary race in Tennessee itself. Perhaps the biggest question for interested Tennesseans may be what kind of role Tennessee will end up playing in the nomination process. In 2008, Tennessee ended up having a quasi-major role in keeping former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in the campaign for as long as he was. According to the current schedule of primaries and caucuses, Tennessee appears to be set to vote on March 6th, which-if there are no major changes in the primary calendar before that date-will be Super Tuesday.

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