Monday, August 11, 2008

The National Map This Week (August 11)

Today we begin a weekly look at where things stand in the electoral college based on present State-by-State polling information:
<p><strong>><a href=''>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

If we use the polls to project who has the real lead (as opposed to the "lead" in any generic national poll, which is not necessarily reflective of how the election will fall, Barack Obama supporters will be happy to note that The World projects that Obama has a 243-227 lead, and the situation can change weekly as some States rapidly move into the "too close to call" status. Our projection has 68 electoral votes in play in six States.

New Hampshire where the race has been too close to call since the end of the primary season.

Virginia sees the Obama camp keeping it close with suburban Washington, while McCain keeps the Republican edge in the Shenendoah Valley and has a Statewide lead within the margin of error.

Ohio has gone from a moderate Obama lead to the margin of error in a contest that history indicates that John McCain must win. No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio.

Michigan has seen a somewhat comfortable Obama lead winnow away to within the margin of error according to the Democrats' most utilized internal pollster, Public Policy Polling, as of July 30.

Colorado has been within the margin of error since mid-June, with the biggest lead in a single poll being Obama's five point Quinnipiac lead June 26th. The Democrats' own pollsters had Obama by two on June 19th. Quinnipiac showed John McCain with a two point lead July 24.

Nevada is a State where the Obama camp feels they are primed for an upset and leads by two with strong union support in Las Vegas.

Good news for John McCain in all of this: Rasmussen says that voters now trust him on more issues than they trust Barack Obama. Will that be reflected in State-by-State trends in the coming weeks?

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