Monday, August 04, 2008

What A McCain Landslide Might Look Like

Today we explore what an electoral college landslide in favor of John McCain might look like:
<p><strong>><a href=''>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
From the time that McCain became the Republican nominee, his campaign has said that it wants to be competitive in some Blue States, and specifically singled out Pennsylvania and Michigan. In a landslide scenario, it isn't unreasonable to think that he would carry both, especially after lingering resentment in Pennsylvania over the primary there, and anger in Michigan over the process (or lack thereof) for seating Democratic delegates from that State at the party opposite's national convention.

John McCain would also carry Ohio, and manage to hold Colorado for the GOP by the skin of his teeth. Even in a landslide, it is rather unrealistic to expect any of the West Coast to do anything but stay Blue, just as the Northeast likely would-with the exception of New Hampshire.

Of the scenarios that have been discussed here, this one is the least likely to actually occur, but it is within the realm of political possibility.

Beginning next week, we'll have a weekly look at the map based on where the polls in each State currently stand. These numbers will include toss-up electoral votes in those States that are just too close to call. On the Monday before the General Election, I'll use the map to make a final prediction as to the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election.

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At Wednesday, August 06, 2008 8:24:00 PM, Blogger S said...

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.



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