The World According to Oatney

The McCain Narrow Victory Scenario

Today we look at how John McCain could win a narrow victory in the electoral college:

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

If McCain can keep the South solid, he can then concentrate on Ohio and the West. Despite his best efforts, there are a lot of people who just don't trust Barack Obama, and John McCain would do well to play on that, and it could have an impact in November.

In a narrow victory for McCain, what States could swing the election in his favor? New Hampshire is a State where he enjoys an unusual popularity even among conservative Republicans. If the same people who voted for him in that State's January Primary turn out for him in November, he could pick up New Hampshire's four Electoral Votes.

Between Colorado and Iowa, one of these two States could wrap up a victory for John McCain. If one of them is going to move into the McCain column, it is most likely to be Colorado. The Rocky Mountain State is one rich with pro-family organizations, and is home to the United States Air Force Academy-a place filled with young cadets who, if any vote locally, are most likely to cast their votes for a Republican. Like West Point and Annapolis, the Air Force Academy-while officially non-political-is a practical bastion of the Republican Party. Between the religious conservative vote and the military vote, Colorado could be the State that insures a Republican victory in November.

Next Week: The unlikely event of a McCain landslide

Labels: Democrats, Presidential Election, Republican Party

posted by Deacon David Oatney @ 9:00 AM