The Obama Electoral Landslide ScenarioLast week we discussed how Barack Obama could win a very narrow victory in the Electoral College. This week, let's examine what could bring about an Electoral College landslide for Obama, what that would look like, and how it might transform the electoral map:
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Even in a landslide scenario, we don't see too much change to the idea that there is a clearly defined "Red State-Blue State" divide, in that there will still be a massive swath of the country that will vote overwhelmingly Republican. Even on a bad night for the GOP, the Democratic nominee remains primarily a Northern and a West Coast candidate. The difference in an electoral landslide for Obama would be that the key swing States move in his favor. In a true electoral landslide, Obama would win Ohio, a State no Republican has ever won without. He would hold a very tight race in Pennsylvania for the Democrats, and would build on his victory in the Iowa Caucus to carry that State in the fall.
In addition to holding every "blue swing State" from 2004, Obama would also carry Colorado-with its increasing numbers of more liberal Eastern transplants, and New Mexico on the strength of the Hispanic vote. The State that would make it a landslide for Obama would be Virginia, which Obama would win almost entirely on the strength of turnout from a coalition of affluent Northern transplants, federal government employees, and the African-American vote-most of this will come from Northern Virginia near Washington.
If Barack Obama were to win the General Election based on this scenario, the national popular vote would still likely be quite close. A lack of enthusiasm for John McCain among conservatives would be the culprit that many Republicans would blame for the loss.