Monday, July 21, 2008

The Obama Electoral Landslide Scenario

Last week we discussed how Barack Obama could win a very narrow victory in the Electoral College. This week, let's examine what could bring about an Electoral College landslide for Obama, what that would look like, and how it might transform the electoral map:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Even in a landslide scenario, we don't see too much change to the idea that there is a clearly defined "Red State-Blue State" divide, in that there will still be a massive swath of the country that will vote overwhelmingly Republican. Even on a bad night for the GOP, the Democratic nominee remains primarily a Northern and a West Coast candidate. The difference in an electoral landslide for Obama would be that the key swing States move in his favor. In a true electoral landslide, Obama would win Ohio, a State no Republican has ever won without. He would hold a very tight race in Pennsylvania for the Democrats, and would build on his victory in the Iowa Caucus to carry that State in the fall.

In addition to holding every "blue swing State" from 2004, Obama would also carry Colorado-with its increasing numbers of more liberal Eastern transplants, and New Mexico on the strength of the Hispanic vote. The State that would make it a landslide for Obama would be Virginia, which Obama would win almost entirely on the strength of turnout from a coalition of affluent Northern transplants, federal government employees, and the African-American vote-most of this will come from Northern Virginia near Washington.

If Barack Obama were to win the General Election based on this scenario, the national popular vote would still likely be quite close. A lack of enthusiasm for John McCain among conservatives would be the culprit that many Republicans would blame for the loss.

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6 Comments:

At Tuesday, July 22, 2008 12:11:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David,
You might consider the possibility that Obama will wim more states. Not only is GOP enthusiasm lacking but McCain is simply an idiot (Iraq-Pakistan border?!? Along with other boo-boos that you'd be surprised are being noticed) and people are catching on to that. It's also very possible that the South is not the solid GOP lock that you think it is.
Not only is GOP enthusiasm lacking but so is the enthusiasm independents have for him.

SteveMule

 
At Tuesday, July 22, 2008 2:13:00 AM, Blogger Sharon Cobb said...

I'd say Georgia is going for Obama for one "red" state.

Barr will peel enough off of McCain.

Also, Obama will take North AND South Carolina.

 
At Tuesday, July 22, 2008 9:34:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David,
Another "Red" state that might go for Obama is Nevada. The Nevada GOP just canceled their convention citing "lack of interest."
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/07/20/nevada_republicans_cancel_convention.html
Now that's gotta hurt!

SteveMule

 
At Tuesday, July 22, 2008 10:05:00 AM, Blogger MRMacrum said...

You seem to assume that only a liberal leaning person would vote for Obama. That this election will be decided along the classic polarizing lines as many have in the past. Many of the people I know who were Bush Supporters both times are ready to try someone, something new no matter what party they belong to. What I am seeing is more of a dissatisfaction with the system as it exists now than any dissastisfaction based on party ideologies.

America is unhappy with things in general it seems. Who is at fault is almost a moot point. Although affixing blame is what the handlers and spin masters will attempt to hinge the election on. But the bottom line is the last 7 years have not seen the US run like most Americans would like to have seen it run. The Republican Party needs to upgrade it's priorities to reflect the realities that the average slobs in the streets are concerned with.

Some Suggestions
Stepping back from the in your face geo-political policies would be a good place to start. Being more concerned with domestic issues that really affect Americans everyday and not pushing social issues that don't.

 
At Wednesday, July 23, 2008 1:25:00 AM, Anonymous Adam Graham said...

David, I wouldn't consider SC and GA as likely Obama States at all. I could see NC in a real blow out.

Nevada, I definitely could see. Another state, David is Missouri which with the exception of 1956 has picked the President every year in modern times.

 
At Tuesday, October 21, 2008 9:30:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I HAVE A QUESTION FOR ALL AMERICANS WHEN WILL YOU WAKE UP. ONCE YOU PUT O’BAMA IN THE AMERICAN AS YOU KNOW IT WILL BE GONE WITHIN 1 YEAR. WE WILL BE AT WAR ON AMERICAN SOIL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 200 YEARS. GOD HELP US ALL IF HE MAKES PRESIDENT, PRAYING TO MY GOD FOR THIS NOT TO HAPPEN. REMEMBER THE ENEMY SAID THEY WILL GET US WITHIN AND HE IS THERE MAN, sINCE HE WON'T HELP US ON OUR (O'BAMA) WILL NATO

 

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