The Narrow Obama Victory ScenarioToday our series on the electoral college continues with a look at a second scenario-how Barack Obama would or could win in a close national election in the college:
Under this scenario, Barack Obama would hold his present leads in Iowa and Minnesota, and would carry New Hampshire by a narrow margin. In spite of John McCain's ability to hang on to Virginia, Missouri, and the Great Plains-and to once again carry a "Solid South" for the GOP-that won't be enough for McCain, because Barack Obama will close in on New Mexico and Colorado in the closing weeks and days of the campaign. When the electoral votes from the rest of New England and the West Coast-States which already heavily favor Obama-are factored in, this would give Senator Obama a 273-265 victory in the Electoral College, and he would win the presidency.
This would make New Hampshire the State that decides the election.
Next week: The Obama landslide scenario.