The Tie ScenarioBeginning this week, we're going to be taking a very serious look at electoral college possibilities for the 2008 Presidential election, and this will become a regular feature here at The World at the beginning of each week (Sunday or Monday). I'll start by taking a few weeks to map out various scenarios whereby each candidate could win. After that, I'll make predictions each week based on the situation on the ground, and will include those States that are just too close to call.
Our first scenario is a real possibility: A tie in the electoral college, and how exactly that could happen.
This kind of scenario is a realistic because we've heard Barack Obama's people talk about how they believe they have a chance to win New Mexico and Colorado, but John McCain is very popular in New Hampshire and could win there. If our other Red States remain red, and the Blue States stay blue, and Barack Obama wins Iowa the way that some commentators there expect he might, the map leaves us with a tie, 269 electoral votes each for John McCain and Barack Obama.
The election would then go into the House of Representatives, where a Democratic majority may not necessarily equate to a Barack Obama victory. State delegations will be under immense pressure from constituents to vote the way that their State voted, and when the House chooses the President of the United States, each State gets one single vote. Such circumstances could make the post-election hoopla in 2000 look like Disco Demolition Night compared to the tension we would see among the populace between Election Day and the day the House voted for the winner.