Tuesday, April 22, 2008

What Pennsylvania Could Mean

Today's the day in Pennsylvania, and the question will not be whether Hillary Clinton is going to win the overall vote in the Keystone State, but by what percentage will she win. Because of the Democrats' proportional delegate allocation system, if Obama manages to keep the totals close, he maintains his overall delegate and popular vote lead.

Barack Obama has managed to shoot himself in the foot both in Pennsylvania and all over small-town America with the discovery of his remarks about people in Middle America being bitter people who cling to religion and guns. Well, most folks that I live around aren't bitter, but they do cling to their faith and their firearms. Further, if people in this part of the country had a problem with Obama before, he is now the target of the popular wrath out here. The worst possible outcome for both of these campaigns is what can be termed an indecisive one:

...A Clinton victory by less than five points, which would give Obama an opening to declare "victory" of sorts and create renewed pressure on Clinton on the future of her campaign; and a Clinton victory by more than five but less than 10, which is the most likely result if some of the better polls are to be believed. This would be considered a solid victory, but would it be big enough to fundamentally change the dynamics of the race?

The answer to the latter question, of course, is that it would not change the dynamics of the race in terms of the Democratic nomination. Barack Obama has managed to hand John McCain the tools with which to beat him in November outside of Pennsylvania. A Clinton victory of less than 10 points will not change a thing and the primary season will keep rolling.

What could make things interesting would be if my prediction turns out to be right and Obama loses by 12 to 15 points. It would likely guarantee a brokered convention with a very nasty floor fight.

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At Tuesday, April 22, 2008 8:14:00 PM, Blogger groetzinger said...

The gleam in your eyes,so sad!

At Wednesday, April 23, 2008 11:01:00 AM, Blogger Dave Oatney said...

You really aren't that politically astute, are you?


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