Monday, April 21, 2008

Pennsylvania Prediction

For the first time in this election cycle, I am prepared to predict that the polls are wrong and that Hillary Clinton will actually score a larger-than-expected victory in Pennsylvania tomorrow:

In the so-called "T" region of the state (almost everything between Philly and
Pittsburgh), Clinton leads 51%-37% with 11% undecided; this is one of the few
demographic groups sporting double-digit undecided. Two other interesting
crosstabs with high undecideds also signal the potential that the undecided vote
will break for Clinton. Among bowlers (24% of the electorate) and gun owners
(38% of the electorate), Clinton leads big among these cultural conservatives:
She's up 54%-33% among bowlers and 53%-28% among gun owners. So while the poll shows Clinton with a narrow -- and arguably narrowing -- lead, the clues inside
the numbers indicate this is her race to lose and that her lead could expand.

Prediction: Clinton will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary tomorrow by at least 10 points and possibly 15-perhaps higher. I think the Obama people are grossly underestimating the impact of his "bitter" remarks, and he did look weaker that he has before now in the debate the other night. Obama supporters can relax for now, though. Even if he loses tomorrow as resoundingly as I believe he will in the Quaker State, it will not be enough to stop him unless Hillary carries one of the remaining States where Obama is expected to do very well-the remaining primary calendar strongly favors Barack Obama.

Obama backers shouldn't count their chickens for the General Election, however. Their man has managed to hand the McCain campaign the rope with which to hang him, should John McCain actually decide to wisen up and pull the noose.

Labels: , ,


At Monday, April 21, 2008 8:12:00 PM, Blogger groetzinger said...

But among pool players and blacksmiths Barrack is ahead.But if he dosen't"wise" up he could slip!

At Tuesday, April 22, 2008 3:08:00 AM, Blogger Sharon Cobb said...

hillary would have to win by 63 percent in Pennsylvania AND win EVERY primary left to have a chance.

Not going to happen.


Post a Comment

<< Home

Locations of visitors to this page
Profile Visitor Map - Click to view visits
Create your own visitor map