Saturday, November 25, 2006

Holy BCS Batman!!!

With Arkansas' loss to LSU yesterday, the BCS has the potential to become a perfect mess, and to do so in a way that would virtually guarantee an Ohio State-Michigan rematch in the National Championship Game. Many have talked about the possibility of a rematch, but I do not favor the idea-largely because I believe the issue of which of those two teams should be allowed to play for the national championship has already been settled on the field.

Prior to the Arkansas loss yesterday, I was prepared to say that if Notre Dame defeats USC tonight, the winner of the SEC Championship Game next week should play Ohio State in Arizona on January 8th. However, that now only applies if the winner of the SEC Championship Game happens to be Florida-and there are those who can point to Florida's strength of schedule as a problem in arguing for allowing Florida to appear against Ohio State.

Instead, the SEC will be left holding the bag and the "perfect storm" that would virtually guarantee an Ohio State-Michigan rematch could happen beginning this weekend, and if the scenario I am about to describe unfolds, then a Buckeye-Wolverine Championship Game would be the only fair solution (and I can't believe I am saying that). Here is the scenario that I am certain would guarantee an Ohio State Michigan rematch at this point:

Notre Dame defeats USC, giving USC two losses and putting them out of contention for the National Championship. Because Michigan trounced Notre Dame in a head-to-head matchup earlier this season, the advantage goes to Michigan to stay ahead of Notre Dame in the BCS rankings.

Two-loss Arkansas, out-of-contention for the national title, defeats one-loss Florida in the SEC Championship Game next week. Arkansas goes to the Sugar Bowl and puts Florida out of contention in the BCS title race.

In that scenario, #2 Michigan is left with only one loss-to #1 Ohio State-the only team ahead of them in the BCS rankings. The only fair solution in that scenario would be to allow the two to play again. If Michigan should win by less than 21 points in such a contest, I would vote Ohio State #1 in the AP poll and split the national championship.

I don't like this scenario in the least, but it is very possible. If USC wins tonight, it is all moot.



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