The Map This Week: October 27Thanks to the latest Strategic Vision polls in Ohio and Florida-the ones for which the pollster has received death threats, Ohio and Florida now lean in favor of John McCain:
In spite of John McCain's improved standing this week, I'm just not prepared to say that McCain has swung Virginia to a toss-up or that the fundamental dynamic of the race has changed over the last week. Barack Obama still has an overall lead that would likely put him in the White House were the election held today.
Yes, McCain has a lot of ground to make up in a week. However, the polls also make it clear that this race is not too far gone. I've talked to several political insiders who believe that the Obama camp may be sitting on their laurels expecting victory. I hate to give tips to the other side, but if they thought that conservatives were going to stay home in droves in frustration (many of us thought that might be the case when McCain won the nomination), it doesn't appear that this will be the case. Conservatives will show up in force on Tuesday next with the sole purpose of attempting to keep Barack Obama from winning the election.
It would be political suicide for the Obama campaign to underestimate conservative determination.
NOTE: Next Monday will be the last map projection and we'll predict the final outcome of the presidential race.