Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The Mountaineer Factor

Hillary Clinton made a good point in stopping to campaign at a Biscuit World (if you've never spent serious time in West Virginia, Tudor's Biscuit World is a Southern West Virginia staple):

"I keep telling people, no Democrat has won the White House since 1916 without winning West Virginia."

On this point, Clinton is absolutely correct. If a Democrat cannot win traditionally and heavily Democratic West Virginia, it is a signal of almost certain defeat in the General Election (see 1984, 2000, 2004). West Virginians will not be inclined to support Barack Obama in large numbers, and the sheer scale of his defeat there in the Democratic Primary today could send a signal of what is to come in November.

If Clinton wins the West Virginia Primary by more than 20 points, or gets a victory as high as 25 or 30 points, it is safe to say that Barack Obama will not be able to count on victory in West Virginia in the fall, and if he cannot win there, his odds of winning the General Election are far more slim than the polls would seem to indicate.

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At Tuesday, May 13, 2008 11:03:00 AM, Blogger groetzinger said...

Lets hope we have learned something from history and vote for the good of the country not with party lines!

At Tuesday, May 13, 2008 2:09:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your thinking like an idiot and getting sucked into HRC's frame of the WV campaign.
The winner of todays race is completely irrevelent to who wins in November. It just is and you know that and should act and think accordingly instead of like an idiot. Huckabee won the WV republican race (a cacus. but still) and how's he doing now?
HRC wins WV ... so? She won't get the nomination and come November the people of WV will have the choice between Obama and Bush3 (AKA McCain). By November people will know that is the choice. By that time Joh "100 yrs sounds good to me" McCain will have had a much harder time than he has now while all the attention is on the Dem race. People all over the country will know what a pandering, hack McCain is. Obama's chances are anything but slim.



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