Friday, January 04, 2008

The preacher man comes to Iowa

Congratulations are in order for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who won a resounding victory among Iowa Republicans in the Iowa Caucuses yesterday:

Mike Huckabee 39,814 34%
Mitt Romney 29,405 25%
Fred Thompson 15,521 13%
John McCain 15,248 13%
Ron Paul 11,598 10%
Rudy Giuliani 4,013 3%
Duncan Hunter 515 0%

96% of precincts reporting


What is most surprising in this result is the sheer distance between Huckabee and Romney. Going into the voting last night, I really thought there might be a chance of a narrow Romney victory or a close Romney second, either of which might stand to benefit Fred Thompson over the long haul. Romney's long second is so distant from the top that it has a campaign impact that is more akin to a third place finish.

The most beneficial scenario for Fred Thompson short of victory or second would have been a Romney victory and a Huckabee second place with Fred finishing third ahead of John McCain-the reverse happened, with McCain making a much stronger-than-expected showing and being placed in a position to possibly win in New Hampshire. The good news is that Fred Thompson is not out of the race, but Fred is running out of options and his back is against the wall. If he can stay in the running until South Carolina, he has a shot. Before last night, he had a very good opportunity to win in South Carolina, but now he is a real underdog there. Finishing second in South Carolina is not an option-Fred must win there outright or he's finished. That is the unfortunate reality of the situation, but it is the truth nonetheless.

Mike Huckabee is to be commended, because if he proved nothing else, he proved you can win without great amounts of money, but you must be willing to do months, even years of working and organizing. He put his sweat into victory long before many others even thought about it, and it did pay off.





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5 Comments:

At Friday, January 04, 2008 12:13:00 PM, Blogger Matt Daley said...

To be quite honest, after last night I was just seething and had some things to say that probably come off as pretty anti-Christian, even though they would have been (IMO) the truth.

But after a little bit of time, I've calmed down to the point where I'll simply say this -- last night made it painfully apparent as to where traditional, complete conservatives (esp. fiscal conservatives) stand in the Republican Party.

For all intents and purposes, the Reagan coalition is dead, and no amount of hoping or praying is going to bring it back.

I came away from last night feeling as if the new power in the Party had shown me the middle finger.

As for Fred...as much as I support him, I can see the writing on the wall. It's probably only a matter of time now; the media and his rivals can see (a lot) of blood, and they're going to go in for the kill. He was simply never going to be allowed to get the nomination.

Of course, I will not for one second blame this on him. When your Party has been hijacked, when the media fabricates stories about you, and when people have double standards, what chance do you have?

And I can assure everyone reading this that whomever may try to take Fred to task if/when he drops out is going to hear it from me, especially if they fit into any of the things that I just listed above. You can bank on that.

Anyway, with that said, Renee and I have now officially made our decision. IF/when Fred leaves the race, we are going to change our voter preference to Independent, and we will be supporting Senator BARACK OBAMA to become the next President of the United States.

I sincerely hope the Republican Party enjoys it's fate.

 
At Friday, January 04, 2008 8:37:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Matt (David, too),
Thanks for (future) support of Sen. Obama.

SteveMule

 
At Friday, January 04, 2008 11:50:00 PM, Blogger Matt Daley said...

Steve,

I would imagine that you're not going to find David supporting Obama. It doesn't matter one whit if Huckabee (or other Republican possibilities) run the country as liberals would fiscally or in terms of foreign policy -- as long as the Republican nominee says the right things about gays and promises to outlaw abortion, by God, that's all that counts!

Of course, I have to be able to look at myself in the mirror. Our country, thanks in part to the half-assed conservatives that we have elected into the Presidency and Congress over the last 10 years, is pretty messed up. We've got far greater problems -- both economically and in foreign policy -- than making sure that gays can't marry and women can't abort babies.

Given the role in these troubles played by the neo-cons who have taken over the Republican Party in the last 20 years, I'm sure you can understand my hesitancy to vote for those types now.

Unfortunately, the Republicans who insist on unity and straight-line voting, regardless of who is put forth, completely fail to realize just how many disenfranchised voters like me exist within the party and how many of us are prepared to either vote Democrat, 3rd party, or not at all.

Need evidence? Look at Ron Paul. He finished in FIFTH place in Iowa with 10% of the vote. If he continues to get similar (or even better?) results, I can guarantee you that he'll run as a 3rd party guy. And if he does, it will be absolute death for whomever the Republican nominee is.

Oh well. The bed has been made, and now it's time to lay in it.

 
At Monday, January 07, 2008 4:42:00 AM, Blogger Dave Oatney said...

I'll not be supporting any Democrat-pray God-ever, Steve.

You are free to dream, however.

 
At Monday, January 07, 2008 6:30:00 AM, Blogger Matt Daley said...

Of course, not all Republicans are truly Republican. A person can claim to be something all day long, but that doesn't make it so.

A vote for Huckabee would, in effect, be a vote for a Democrat. A vote for a wolf in sheep's clothing, if you will.

(But since he's a man of God and would do "God's work", I suppose that's okay...)

If a person says they won't vote for a Democrat but then ends up voting for a guy who talks and governs like one, who is the real joke on? Who is the real patsy?

Mike Huckabee is playing people just as easily as he plays that bass. He's the freakin' Pied Piper, and people are lining up behind him without as much as a thought in their head. It's pretty sickening, really.

 

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