Monday, January 07, 2008

This could be fun

Mitt Romney won the Wyoming Republican Caucus over the weekend. Scenario: Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney wins Wyoming and Nevada, McCain wins New Hampshire with Romney finishing second. Fred wins South Carolina.

It could happen. The result? Mass confusion heading into February 5th.

This could get really fun really fast.

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6 Comments:

At Monday, January 07, 2008 9:15:00 AM, Anonymous Adam Graham said...

It could be really fun for Rudy Giulaini and vindicate his whole strategy. *shudders*

 
At Monday, January 07, 2008 12:42:00 PM, Blogger Matt Daley said...

Adam,

Maybe, but a lot is riding on Florida for ol' Rudy. That might be as important to him as South Carolina is to Fred.

As for Romney and New Hampshire, I don't believe that all 2nd place finishes here would be equal. If he finishes a distant second, with a deficit as large (or larger) than what he ended up with in Iowa, he's going to be in big, big trouble.

I also think that how the 3rd through 6th spots play out in NH is very important, as well as how close the 3rd place guy is to the 2nd place finisher. I don't think Giuliani can afford to finish behind Paul again, and it seems to me that Huckabee needs a 3rd place finish to avoid a slip in momentum.

Most people think Fred will finish 6th, and I would agree with that. However, he did very well in the two debates over the weekend, and if that results in a bump of several percentage points, it would be a boost to him and would hurt one of the other campaigns.

In other words, I think tomorrow night's results at least have the opportunity to affect the race in bigger ways that Iowa did. I don't know if Tuesday night will unmuddy the water any, but it could if things fall the right way.

 
At Tuesday, January 08, 2008 2:53:00 AM, Blogger Sharon Cobb said...

Matt,
McCain should win New Hampshire, unless the Independent voters vote for Obama, in which case that hurts McCain and Romney gets in.

I agree with you about Rudy and Florida and Fred and S.C., and Romney needing a good finish in his backyard.

I used to this this race would be settled by Feb 5. I don't think that anymore.

 
At Tuesday, January 08, 2008 3:28:00 AM, Blogger Matt Daley said...

Sharon,

I'm getting that feeling too. As an Ohioan with a March primary, I'm hoping that my vote will really matter in the process.

With that said, I would imagine that the Republican field will be narrowed down to 3 or maybe 4 by Super Tuesday. Who those final 3 (or 4) will be remains in doubt, but I think at least a couple will drop out between now and then.

By the way, Sean Hannity actually said tonight (while he and Alan Colmes were covering the first votes in New Hampshire) that Fred still stood a chance to win the nomination. Given how Fred's generally been treated by Fox News up until now, I almost fainted. If Fred gets some positive press (finally), maybe he will have a shot.

Of course, the most fascinating thing I am seeing right now is the whole Hillary Clinton saga. Some are speculating that Clinton's inner most advisers are secretly contemplating telling her to quit if she loses badly in New Hampshire. The idea is that her Senate career could be hurt if she stays in and continues to lose.

I just can't fathom that a Clinton would quit -- and so quickly -- but I can understand the logic there, so it's worth watching.

 
At Tuesday, January 08, 2008 3:49:00 AM, Blogger Sharon Cobb said...

I don't think Hillary will quit. I think her strategy is going to be more like Giuliani and focus on Florida and Feb 5 states like California, New York and NJ, where she should do well.

I just finished writing a hit piece on her.

When you have liberals who don't know when to believe her and when not to believe her, then she's got a real credibility problem.

 
At Friday, January 11, 2008 9:53:00 AM, Blogger Chucko said...

Hey fellas, and Dave... glad to see you're doing well. I finally got a job, so now that I have "free time" I can devote my resources more fully to other things.

It's sad, because I really think Romney is the best candidate the Republicans can put up right now, but he may not win Michigan and his campaign is on the ropes. I feel that Adam has a really good point above... as things stand right now, Giuliani is probably still the favorite to win the nomination. If he wins, the Republicans lose, period. I for one will not vote for Rudy. I have serious issues with McCain and have stated in the past that I would never vote for him. I suppose we'll see.

 

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