The World According to Oatney

This week's electoral map shows little change from last week's, except that I feel more comfortable keeping New Mexico in the Obama column for now, and Michigan is in play:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
The situation in the Wolverine State is tight, with an aggregate of four polls now showing McCain within three points there. Even though there is a similar poll result this week in Wisconsin, Obama's leads there have been wide enough and consistent enough to view the latest polls as an aberration, so I'm not comfortable moving Wisconsin to toss-up status until we see further polling over the next week or two that show the race is really tightening in that State.

I am not sure I agree with Adam Graham that Washington State is in play. Present polling there is not consistent with the most recent results beforehand, and we are just now beginning to see significant gains for John McCain there. I'm not comfortable changing Washington's status without further data showing a clear trend.

Toss-Ups: New Hampshire, Michigan, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada.