Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The Electoral Map This Week: Obama's Move

The electoral map this week takes a shift in favor of Barack Obama that seems to mirror the national polls:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Michigan has gone from being a toss-up to being back into Obama's column in the wake of public reaction in that State to the first presidential debate. Further, a significant polling call has to be made in the State of New Hampshire. While internal State polling there still suggests that the race is extremely tight there and that New Hampshire could return to toss-up status before November, there is clearly a trend there as Obama continues to maintain a very slight lead in every poll taken. As a result, New Hampshire should be put into the Democratic column for now.

This is a significant development on the map, because it gives Barack Obama 264 electoral votes. There are only three toss-up States this week; Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. John McCain has to carry all three of these to win. If Obama carries Virginia, he wins regardless of the outcome in Colorado and Nevada. If McCain carries Virginia and Nevada, but Obama carries Colorado, he still gets 273 electoral votes and wins the election. If John McCain carries Virginia and Colorado, but Obama carries Nevada, the contest ends in an electoral tie of 269-269, and (probably) gets thrown into the House of Representatives.

NOTE: The electoral map was moved from its usual day on Monday to today because of coverage of the bailout vote in the House.

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5 Comments:

At Tuesday, September 30, 2008 6:29:00 PM, Blogger Gary ("Old Dude") said...

Me thinks the House vote rejecting the bailout has alot of americans wondering just how big is tghe crisis, and deciding just maybe its not as big as the leftist media would have us believe----me thinks perhaps we are seeing a shift of sentfment back to basics and away from liberal promises of pie in the sky (if you vote Democratic)---the house vote mirrors the silent majority of american tax payers---interesting.

 
At Wednesday, October 01, 2008 12:23:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your map is a bit off... FL and OH are tied, Obama is up in VA and CO.

Where is McCain going?

 
At Wednesday, October 01, 2008 2:17:00 AM, Blogger Dave Oatney said...

Anon;
I think some of the latest polls in your aforementioned States are outliers...look at overall trends!

 
At Wednesday, October 01, 2008 5:19:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David,
The overall trends are that Obama is going up while McCain is going down.

SteveMule

 
At Wednesday, October 01, 2008 10:55:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

heh...

loser

 

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