The World According to Oatney

As Missouri Goes, So Goes the Nation

This week's electoral college map shows a decided push for John McCain, and throws three key States that had previously been in Barack Obama's column into the "toss-up" column. Were the election held today, it would likely be decided in six States:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

In Pennsylvania, Obama's lead has shrunk to three points in Quinnipiac's poll, well within the margin of error. That means the expected easy Democratic victory in Pennsylvania could be whittling away, likely thanks in no small part to the Catholic vote in that State.

Michigan is a toss-up with four differen't polling firms getting four different and all very close results there. Three of the four polls are within the margin of error. Michigan had been leaning in favor of Barack Obama.

Obama's lead in Colorado is back within the margin of error, and in New Mexico, McCain has a two point lead. Both are toss-ups.

Nevada had Barack Obama up one as late as last week, now John McCain supposedly has a two-point kead there.

John McCain has a statistically ignorable two point lead in Virginia-the Old Dominion is still much in play.

John McCain may have Missouri locked up. The Show Me State has predicted the winner in every presidential election but one (1956) since 1904.

NOTE: The Democratic prognostication site Electoral Vote tells us that if the election were held today, McCain would have 270 electoral votes.

Labels: Democrats, Presidential Election, Republican Party

posted by Deacon David Oatney @ 9:00 AM