Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Far From Insurmoutable

Today we continue the discussion of polls and polling sites by examining Election Projection, a site run by "The Blogging Caesar," conservative Republican Scott Elliott. Whether a person agrees with Elliott's politics or not (for the most part, I do, of course) Elliot's tracking data was dead on for both the 2004 Presidential election as well as the 2006 Congressional ballot, so what his site is saying and the data he is spitting out from week to week can't be ignored.

Today's edition projects that if the election were held today, Barack Obama would win 304 electoral votes to John McCain's 234. As comforting as that might sound to Democrats, Elliot's prediction in 2004 this early in the race showed a very narrow potential John Kerry victory. In addition, Elliot does not seem to have taken into account internal State polls in Michigan and Ohio cited by his own research that show John McCain with narrow leads in those two States at the end of May, when the last internals were taken.

The "swing" States where Barack Obama is presently in the lead are not showing his lead to be insurmountable, and these are States where polls have also shown John McCain to be personally popular. The present numbers look good for Barack Obama, but not great.



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